Recently I’ve been reflecting back to March 2009. My interest in behavioral finance probably stems from the technical confusion with markets. From the collapse of Lehman on, another engineering friend and I traded daily emails attempting to make sense of what was happening. As news continued to worsen, we threw our hands up and proclaimed:
“TOO SCREWY – INCONCLUSIVE!”
Although I anticipated the answer, I needed to find a chart graphing historical events against the stock market. As you would imagine, the more severe the news – the more the market plummeted.
Back to 2009 – equities were at fire-sale prices, yet my urge to grab everything under the sun was relatively low. My wish list grew daily, but my executed orders were close to nill. Simply put, my brain was outputting conflicting messages. How could this be given I knew the Buffet adage, “Be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful”.
Mulling over this relationship, an interesting thought surfaced. Maybe it has less to do with
FEAR & GREED and more to do with
FEAR & EXPECTATIONS.


